The unveiling of the cost of building a new Île d’Orléans’s bridge was surprising. This project will cost 2,759 billion of dollars $ and will be entirely funded by the Quebec government.
These include a 1,856 billion $ dollars design-build contract. They also include fees for planning and monitoring the project. Additionally, there is a provision for risks, overheads, and financing. Everything will be assumed by the Quebec Ministry of Transport, that is to say, the Government of Quebec. Those estimates also include a whole series of related activities. in particular building road access and demolishing the current bridge. 1
When the project timelines were announced in October 2020, the CAQ Minister of Transport, Mr. François Bonnardel, didn’t want to reveal the cost estimates. He only said that they would be several hundred million dollars. 2 As a result, today, nobody can explain why it is so expansive. Furthermore, the contract for its completion has already been signed. That’s quite surprising!
It is also difficult to explain such an expense for a population of 8,000 residents and seasonal visitors. It is especially hard to explain. Several important projects in the Quebec area were put back due to the high cost. These projects include a tramway and a new bridge across the St-Laurence river.
Ministerial directives
We need to analyze this project thoroughly. We should refer to the Policy on the Governance of Major Public Infrastructure Projects of the government of Québec 3. It aims to oversee the management process for major projects in Quebec. It requires the execution of three steps for planning a major project infrastructure:
- Step 1: Development of the strategic presentation file;
- Step 2: Development of the initial business case;
- Step 3: Development of the final business case.
The first step seems to be the most important. In the case of the Îles d’Orlans’s bridge several criteria have not been respected, in particular about the first two points which require the following studies:
- the description and justification of the need and the results sought…The study (which must be carried out) clearly shows the links between the expressed need, government priorities, strategic objectives and regional priorities of the public body
- the determination of the most feasible options and the initial estimates of cost of the project. That is to say , the options which, a priori, seem the most likely to meet the needs.
These directives raise several questions about the project. Why would it imperatively meets the most important transportation needs in the Quebec region ? As well, why other very important projects have been put on hold ? The island bridge accommodates 12,000 vehicles per day and 15,000 during the summer season.
One may also ask whether the scenario of building a new bridge represented the optimal option. Were they other solutions than building a bridge costing 2,7 billions of dollars $.
Also, the preliminary estimates of the project costs were never revealed at the stage of producing the strategic file. This had the consequence of putting the population in a fait accompli situation.
So what other options should have been analyzed?
Here are three scenarios that could have been analyzed under government policy. It is assumed that the 2,7 billion of dollars $ construction project represents a reference project.
Scenario 1: Maintaining existing infrastructure
One of the reasons given by the Minister of Transport and Sustainable Mobility, Ms. Geneviève Guilbault, is that the current infrastructure has reached the end of its useful life.
The concept of useful service life does not necessarily refer to the impossibility of using the bridge. Actual technology allows repairs to be carried out and to be kept in a state of use for several years. It refers to the economic calculation of keeping the existing structure usable. This is compared with the costs of building new infrastructure.
The principle is as follows. Annual maintenance costs increase as the infrastructure ages. Over a long period, the maintenance costs of the old bridge will add up. Eventually, they will match the construction costs of a new bridge. It is at this point of equivalence that the useful service life of the existing infrastructure is determined.
Thus, 2,759 billion dollars $ is equivalent to an annuity of 158,3 million dollars $ over a 50-year period. It is also equivalent to 140,8 million dollars $ over 80 years. These amounts are extraordinarily high for the maintenance of the bridge. These calculations would refute the minister’s argument.
Maintaining the existing bridge should bring substantial savings. Notably, the costs of demolishing the old bridge and developing new access routes for the new bridge. In addition, other types of savings would also be possible. Like avoiding design costs, construction supervision management, the installation of power supply equipment, lighting, intelligent transport systems, and telecommunications.
The minister could have decided to assume the maintenance costs of the current bridge for several more years. This scenario would have been entirely conceivable.
Scenario 2: Phase 1 of an extended link between Quebec and Lévis
The construction of a new Île d’Orléans bridge could represent the first phase. This may be part of a more extended infrastructure project across the St-Laurence River. This could be a justification for high cost of construction. However, the infrastructure across the St-Laurence River requires much higher transport capacities. These are higher compared to the new bridge for the Île d’Orléans.
The minister disclosed the costs of the Île d’Orléans bridge project without waiting for the recommendations of the report. The Caisse de dépôt et de placement du Québec (CDPQ) was tasked with the report. It will be revealed next June. CDPQ will focus on developing a comprehensive transportation plan. This plan will provide a coherent vision for the Quebec City region. It could have considered the bridge Orléans’s project also.
The Parti Québécois (PQ) suggested limiting the mega infrastructure over the St-Laurence River to public transit. The Îles d’Orléans’s bridge will accept cars traffic in each direction. It will feature wide shoulders and a multi-purpose path on either side of the traffic lanes. There will also be facilities for biking. Nothing appears to have been planned for public transit in the construction project for the new bridge of the island.
Furthermore, connecting the two infrastructures would create a bottleneck and congestion on the island bridge, because of its lower capacity.
For these reasons, it seems unlikely that this scenario will come to pass.
Scenario 3: a ferry link instead of a bridge
If the current bridge is demolished, a ferry service between Quebec and Île d’Orléans can be assured. This hypothesis is all the more plausible. A bridge or a tunnel between Quebec city and Lévis would make the current ferry service unnecessary. It would render it completely obsolete.
How to finance new ferry service
The budget assigned to the current crossing could be used for the new ferry service and would allow substantial savings. As an indication, the revenues of the Québec-Lévis crossing were $27.2 million before government participation in 2022-2023 according to the company’s annual management report. 4 The government participation can be estimated at $36 million. This is determined in proportion to the revenues over the whole. This brings the total revenues to $63.2 million.
We used the same type of calculations as in the first scenario. The final value of a ferry service project would be 1.15 billion dollars $ over 50 years. It would be 1.2 billion dollars over 80 years. This represents savings of some 1.6 billion dollars $ compared to building a new bridge.
Added to this would be the cost of developing the docks, constructing buildings and providing road access to Île d’Orléans. Currently, the Société des traversiers fully covers operating expenses. Therefore, only the cost of maintaining the bridge and investing in infrastructure on the island would be considered.
This is the scenario that would be the most economical.
Conclusion
This text presents some scenarios. These scenarios could have been developed for a strategic presentation file. This file is about the construction of a new bridge on Île-d’Orléans. The importance of the costs is 2.7 billion dollars. Additionally, the absence of scenarios shows a lack of transparency. The non-disclosure of initial estimates also indicates this issue in the management of this project.
Louis Bellemare
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